Fortnite pirate token odds
Epic announced how often each treasure drops from a chest. Here is what those rates mean for you, chest after chest.
The rates, per chest opened
Per chest opened in a normal match, outside Treasure Hours. Every chest is a new draw: the table shows your chance of getting each treasure at least once.
| Treasure | 1 chest in | After 500 chests | After 2,000 chests | After 10,000 chests | 50% chance at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pirate token | 137,500 | 0.36% | 1.4% | 7% | 95,308 |
| Gold outfit | 1,562,500 | 0.032% | 0.13% | 0.64% | 1,083,043 |
| Vehicle & decal | 7,813 | 6.2% | 23% | 72% | 5,416 |
| Pickaxe or back bling | 568 | 59% | 97% | 99% | 394 |
| Jam track | 391 | 72% | 99% | 99% | 271 |
| Loading screen | 272 | 84% | 99% | 99% | 189 |
| Gizmo | 127 | 98% | 99% | 99% | 88 |
How your chance adds up
The chance of getting a treasure at least once after N chests is 1 − (1 − 1/rate)N. For the pirate token (1 chest in 137,500), that is about 0.36% after 500 chests, 1.4% after 2,000 and 7% after 10,000.
To reach a 50% chance, you need about 95,308 chests: around 4,765 matches at 20 chests per match. Bad luck does not build up: each new chest has exactly the same odds as the first one.
Treasure Hours
During Treasure Hours, Epic raises some rates: Pirate token ×1.5, Gold outfit ×7.5, Vehicle & decal ×10. The pirate token then drops 1 chest in 91,667.
How many chests have you opened?
Fortnite does not show it anywhere. Chest Tracker reads the replays Fortnite saves on your PC, counts every chest you open and works out your real chance for each treasure, match after match.
Free · Windows 10 / 11 · Open source
Other guide: Fortnite replays: turn them on and find them